With new data provided by Southern California Edison (SCE), we are noting changes in both energy source and energy cost for our homes and, importantly, on the road. According to Edison International’s Countdown to 2045: “Although electric bills will increase, savings from reduced or eliminated fossil fuel expenses will more than offset the increase for households that adopt electrified technologies.”
A few key observations:
Less Energy Use Overall, and More Electric.
Californian are using much less total energy than in the past, with an increasing trend toward lowering use of natural gas and increasing use of electricity. This trend aligns with California’s effort to reduce carbon emissions by requiring that electricity in the grid is generated through clean alternative energy like solar and wind.
New Construction Leads the trend
Newer buildings continue to use less gas and more electricity. New homes use a third less natural gas but 50% more electricity. Onsite renewable energy is required for almost all new construction, bringing energy savings to homes with installed PVs. Use of energy storage systems such as batteries will increase due to the public interest in resiliency and in mitigating power outages, as well as building code requirements for commercial and high-rise multifamily occupancies.
Personal Transportation Makes a Difference
The adoption of electric vehicle technology is increasing more rapidly than projected. Charging a car at home increases the owner’s electric bill, but the cost increase is more than offset by their savings on gasoline.
A Bumpy Road but Results will be Long-term Savings
Reviewing the chart below, we see that today, the combined energy cost for gasoline, electricity and natural gas is over $6,600 per year for the average SCE customer.
www.edison.com/countdownto2045
As we transition to electric vehicles and home equipment, electric bills (either to the grid or to pay for onsite PVs) will increase substantially, but use of any fossil fuel will drop dramatically, so the total energy costs will fall below $3,900 per year by 2045. That reduces the “energy burden” of an average household to less than 3% of their income. The cost savings is not a straight line, however, as the costs savings of electric vehicles are not yet available to everyone, nor are the savings from renewable energy and battery storage.
In the long run, households throughout California are projected to save money, including personal transportation costs, after the transition from fossil fuels.